New York Islanders at New Jersey Devils NHL Predictions

2026-02-05 • Prudential Center

New Jersey Devils 1 - 3 New York Islanders

🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NJD: 57.2%

NYI: 42.8%

Expected Goals

NJD: 3.23

NYI: 3.10

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 41%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NJD

Jake Allen - 11-8-1 | 0.912 SV% | 2.52 GAA

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

Stat	NJD	NYI
Season SV%	0.912	0.910
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.52	2.55

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NJD	Jake Allen	14	11	3	78.6%	2.71	4	-0.29
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	24	23	1	95.8%	2.17	0	1.17

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 45% • NJD at home vs NYI: 1-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-05	NJD 1 - 3 NYI	NYI	NJD
2026-01-06	NYI 9 - 0 NJD	NYI	NYI
2025-12-23	NYI 2 - 1 NJD	NYI	NYI
2025-11-10	NJD 2 - 3 NYI	NYI	NJD
2025-04-13	NJD 0 - 1 NYI	NYI	NJD

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NJD	13	0	0.52
1	NYI	9	1	0.77
2	NJD	19	0	1.27
2	NYI	8	1	0.45
3	NJD	8	0	0.38
3	NYI	11	2	1.49

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown