Ottawa Senators at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2026-02-05 • Xfinity Mobile Arena

Philadelphia Flyers 1 - 2 Ottawa Senators (OT)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

PHI: 41.2%

OTT: 58.8%

Expected Goals

PHI: 2.79

OTT: 3.51

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

PHI

Dan Vladar - 14-6-3 | 0.910 SV% | 2.40 GAA

OTT

J. Reimer

Stat	PHI	OTT
Season SV%	0.910	—
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.40	—

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	Dan Vladar	27	25	2	92.6%	3.12	4	1.12
OTT	J. Reimer	16	15	1	93.8%	1.66	0	0.66

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 62% • PHI at home vs OTT: 2-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-08	OTT 2 - 1 PHI	OTT	OTT
2026-02-05	PHI 1 - 2 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-11-08	PHI 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-10-23	OTT 2 - 1 PHI	OTT	OTT
2025-04-13	OTT 4 - 3 PHI	OTT	OTT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	8	0	0.26
1	OTT	15	1	0.97
2	PHI	14	0	0.74
2	OTT	17	2	1.52
3	PHI	14	0	0.56
3	OTT	5	0	0.13
4	PHI	1	0	0.10
4	OTT	2	1	0.51

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 58.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 1 - 2 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 2.8 - 3.5