Nashville Predators at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2026-02-05 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 4 - 2 Nashville Predators

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

WSH: 58.1%

NSH: 41.9%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.05

NSH: 2.78

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 50%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

NSH

Justus Annunen - 3-5-1 | 0.875 SV% | 3.29 GAA

Stat	WSH	NSH
Season SV%	0.913	0.875
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.39	3.29

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Logan Thompson	29	27	2	93.1%	3.78	4	1.78
NSH	Justus Annunen	30	26	4	86.7%	2.43	2	-1.57

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • WSH at home vs NSH: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-05	WSH 4 - 2 NSH	WSH	WSH
2026-01-11	NSH 3 - 2 WSH	NSH	WSH
2025-01-11	NSH 1 - 4 WSH	WSH	NSH
2024-11-06	WSH 3 - 2 NSH	WSH	WSH
2023-12-30	WSH 2 - 3 NSH	NSH	WSH

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	15	0	0.69
1	NSH	16	2	1.44
2	WSH	16	0	0.92
2	NSH	14	2	1.19
3	WSH	10	2	0.83
3	NSH	13	0	1.15

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 58.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown