Buffalo Sabres at New Jersey Devils NHL Predictions

2026-02-25 • Prudential Center

New Jersey Devils 1 - 2 Buffalo Sabres

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NJD: 51.3%

BUF: 48.7%

Expected Goals

NJD: 3.20

BUF: 3.11

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NJD

Jake Allen - 11-8-1 | 0.912 SV% | 2.52 GAA

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

Stat	NJD	BUF
Season SV%	0.912	0.903
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.52	2.46

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NJD	Jake Allen	30	28	2	93.3%	3.31	2	1.31
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	28	27	1	96.4%	4.67	4	3.67

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • NJD at home vs BUF: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-25	NJD 1 - 2 BUF	BUF	NJD
2025-12-21	NJD 1 - 3 BUF	BUF	NJD
2025-11-28	BUF 0 - 5 NJD	NJD	BUF
2025-02-02	BUF 4 - 3 NJD	BUF	NJD
2024-10-05	NJD 3 - 1 BUF	NJD	NJD

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NJD	14	1	1.12
1	BUF	13	0	0.82
2	NJD	12	0	1.02
2	BUF	15	1	1.17
3	NJD	20	3	2.53
3	BUF	18	1	1.33

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown