Philadelphia Flyers at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions
2026-02-25 • Capital One Arena
Washington Capitals 3 - 1 Philadelphia Flyers
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
WSH: 55.9%
PHI: 44.1%
Expected Goals
WSH: 3.12
PHI: 3.05
Total Goals
Median: 5.9
Over 5.5: 53%
Over 6.5: 39%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
WSH
Logan Thompson - 20-16-4 | 0.913 SV% | 2.41 GAA
PHI
Dan Vladar - 17-9-6 | 0.905 SV% | 2.46 GAA
| Stat | WSH | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.910 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.904 | 0.918 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.958 | 0.929 |
| GAA | 2.39 | 2.40 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • WSH at home vs PHI: 4-0
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-25 | WSH 3 - 1 PHI | WSH | WSH |
| 2026-02-03 | PHI 4 - 2 WSH | PHI | PHI |
| 2025-03-20 | WSH 3 - 2 PHI | WSH | WSH |
| 2025-02-06 | PHI 3 - 4 WSH | WSH | PHI |
| 2024-10-23 | WSH 6 - 3 PHI | WSH | WSH |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 13:52 | WSH | Goal |
| 3 | 19:34 | WSH | Goal |
| 3 | 14:08 | WSH | Goal |
| 3 | 00:29 | WSH | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 55.9%
Total Goals
Actual: 4.0
Expected: 6.2
Score Breakdown
Washington Capitals 3 - 1 Philadelphia Flyers
Expected: 3.1 - 3.1