Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions
2026-02-25 • Benchmark International Arena
Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TBL: 69.6%
TOR: 30.4%
Expected Goals
TBL: 3.73
TOR: 2.79
Total Goals
Median: 7.1
Over 5.5: 73%
Over 6.5: 58%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 39-15-4 | 0.911 SV% | 2.31 GAA
TOR
Joseph Woll - 15-16-7 | 0.898 SV% | 3.34 GAA
| Stat | TBL | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.914 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.919 | 0.863 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.937 | — |
| GAA | 2.33 | 2.74 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • TBL at home vs TOR: 2-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-07 | TOR 2 - 5 TBL | TBL | TOR |
| 2026-02-25 | TBL 4 - 2 TOR | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-12-08 | TOR 2 - 0 TBL | TOR | TBL |
| 2025-04-09 | TBL 3 - 4 TOR | TOR | TBL |
| 2025-01-20 | TOR 5 - 3 TBL | TOR | TBL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 07:07 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 07:58 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 02:59 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 16:19 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 16:30 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 17:13 | TBL | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 69.6%
Total Goals
Actual: 6.0
Expected: 6.5
Score Breakdown
Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs
Expected: 3.7 - 2.8
Like this analysis? Get it daily.
Short, data-driven emails. Unsubscribe any time.