Winnipeg Jets at Vancouver Canucks NHL Predictions

2026-02-25 • Rogers Arena

Vancouver Canucks 2 - 3 Winnipeg Jets (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (50% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

VAN: 50.1%

WPG: 49.9%

Expected Goals

VAN: 2.91

WPG: 3.21

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

VAN

Nikita Tolopilo - 0-0-0 | 0.000 SV% | 0.00 GAA

WPG

Eric Comrie - 6-9-1 | 0.880 SV% | 3.49 GAA

Stat	VAN	WPG
Season SV%	0.000	0.880
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	0.00	3.49

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VAN	Nikita Tolopilo	28	25	3	89.3%	4.25	5	1.25
WPG	Eric Comrie	23	21	2	91.3%	2.23	2	0.23

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 78% • VAN at home vs WPG: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-07	WPG 3 - 2 VAN	WPG	WPG
2026-02-25	VAN 2 - 3 WPG	WPG	VAN
2025-11-11	VAN 3 - 5 WPG	WPG	WPG
2025-03-30	WPG 3 - 1 VAN	WPG	WPG
2025-03-18	VAN 6 - 2 WPG	VAN	WPG

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VAN	12	1	0.79
1	WPG	16	1	1.17
2	VAN	5	0	0.30
2	WPG	22	3	1.88
3	VAN	17	1	0.99
3	WPG	9	1	0.76
4	VAN	1	0	0.16
4	WPG	4	0	0.45

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Vancouver Canucks 2 - 3 Winnipeg Jets

Expected: 2.9 - 3.2