Vegas Golden Knights at Los Angeles Kings NHL Predictions

2026-02-25 • Crypto.com Arena

Los Angeles Kings 4 - 6 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

LAK: 52.6%

VGK: 47.4%

Expected Goals

LAK: 3.15

VGK: 3.10

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 43%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

LAK

Anton Forsberg - 6-6-3 | 0.901 SV% | 2.70 GAA

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

Stat	LAK	VGK
Season SV%	0.901	0.888
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.70	2.73

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
LAK	Anton Forsberg	25	19	6	76.0%	3.65	2	-2.35
VGK	Adin Hill	19	15	4	78.9%	1.95	0	-2.05

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • LAK at home vs VGK: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-10	VGK 2 - 1 LAK	VGK	VGK
2026-02-25	LAK 4 - 6 VGK	VGK	LAK
2026-02-05	VGK 4 - 1 LAK	VGK	VGK
2026-01-14	LAK 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	LAK
2025-10-08	VGK 5 - 6 LAK	LAK	VGK

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	LAK	12	0	0.72
1	VGK	15	0	0.80
2	LAK	6	0	0.38
2	VGK	16	0	0.69
3	LAK	13	0	0.85
3	VGK	18	2	2.16

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown