Edmonton Oilers at Anaheim Ducks NHL Predictions

2026-02-25 • Honda Center

Anaheim Ducks 6 - 5 Edmonton Oilers

🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

ANA: 48.7%

EDM: 51.3%

Expected Goals

ANA: 3.39

EDM: 3.57

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 51%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

ANA

Lukas Dostal - 13-9-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.15 GAA

EDM

Tristan Jarry - 12-3-1 | 0.906 SV% | 2.73 GAA

Stat	ANA	EDM
Season SV%	0.888	0.906
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.15	2.73

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
ANA	Lukas Dostal	27	22	5	81.5%	4.18	2	-0.82
EDM	Tristan Jarry	29	23	6	79.3%	3.06	3	-2.94

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 65% • ANA at home vs EDM: 6-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-30	ANA 5 - 2 EDM	ANA	ANA
2026-04-28	EDM 4 - 1 ANA	EDM	EDM
2026-04-26	ANA 4 - 3 EDM	ANA	ANA
2026-04-24	ANA 7 - 4 EDM	ANA	ANA
2026-04-22	EDM 4 - 6 ANA	ANA	EDM

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	ANA	15	2	1.47
1	EDM	14	1	1.41
2	ANA	13	1	0.86
2	EDM	17	0	1.28
3	ANA	14	0	0.73
3	EDM	16	1	1.48

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 7.0

Score Breakdown