New York Islanders at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2026-02-26 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 4 New York Islanders (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (62% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

MTL: 62.3%

NYI: 37.7%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.46

NYI: 2.84

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

Stat	MTL	NYI
Season SV%	0.863	0.910
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.52	2.55

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	26	22	4	84.6%	3.37	3	-0.63
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	25	22	3	88.0%	2.99	2	-0.01

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • MTL at home vs NYI: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-12	NYI 1 - 4 MTL	MTL	NYI
2026-03-21	MTL 7 - 3 NYI	MTL	MTL
2026-02-26	MTL 3 - 4 NYI	NYI	MTL
2025-03-20	NYI 4 - 3 MTL	NYI	NYI
2024-12-03	MTL 2 - 1 NYI	MTL	NYI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	14	1	0.89
1	NYI	11	2	1.03
2	MTL	12	0	1.00
2	NYI	19	1	1.45
3	MTL	9	1	1.05
3	NYI	12	0	0.74
4	MTL	1	0	0.05
4	NYI	1	0	0.16

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 62.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 4 New York Islanders

Expected: 3.5 - 2.8