Toronto Maple Leafs at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2026-02-26 • Amerant Bank Arena

Florida Panthers 5 - 1 Toronto Maple Leafs

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

FLA: 77.1%

TOR: 22.9%

Expected Goals

FLA: 3.54

TOR: 2.94

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

TOR

Joseph Woll - 8-4-1 | 0.914 SV% | 2.74 GAA

Stat	FLA	TOR
Season SV%	0.888	0.914
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.80	2.74

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	30	29	1	96.7%	2.54	0	1.54
TOR	Joseph Woll	37	32	5	86.5%	5.58	4	0.58

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 79% • FLA at home vs TOR: 7-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	TOR 2 - 6 FLA	FLA	FLA
2026-02-26	FLA 5 - 1 TOR	FLA	FLA
2026-01-06	TOR 4 - 1 FLA	TOR	TOR
2025-12-02	FLA 1 - 4 TOR	TOR	FLA
2025-05-18	TOR 1 - 6 FLA	FLA	FLA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	FLA	23	1	1.52
1	TOR	8	0	0.54
2	FLA	12	0	0.93
2	TOR	16	0	1.13
3	FLA	18	3	3.12
3	TOR	17	0	0.87

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 77.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown