Tampa Bay Lightning at Carolina Hurricanes NHL Predictions

2026-02-26 • Lenovo Center

Carolina Hurricanes 5 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

CAR: 68.5%

TBL: 31.5%

Expected Goals

CAR: 3.24

TBL: 2.72

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 48%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • CAR at home vs TBL: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-14	TBL 2 - 4 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-02-26	CAR 5 - 4 TBL	CAR	CAR
2025-12-20	TBL 6 - 4 CAR	TBL	TBL
2025-03-11	CAR 4 - 1 TBL	CAR	CAR
2025-01-07	TBL 3 - 2 CAR	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CAR	18	1	1.30
1	TBL	15	0	1.22
2	CAR	12	0	0.57
2	TBL	14	1	1.17
3	CAR	11	1	0.96
3	TBL	11	1	1.18

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 68.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Carolina Hurricanes 5 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.2 - 2.7