Tampa Bay Lightning at Carolina Hurricanes NHL Predictions

2026-02-26 • Lenovo Center

Carolina Hurricanes 5 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CAR: 80.3%

TBL: 19.7%

Expected Goals

CAR: 3.28

TBL: 2.80

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 43%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CAR

Brandon Bussi - 13-2-1 | 0.901 SV% | 2.33 GAA

TBL

Jonas Johansson - 9-6-1 | 0.894 SV% | 2.83 GAA

Stat	CAR	TBL
Season SV%	0.901	0.894
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.33	2.83

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CAR	Brandon Bussi	28	24	4	85.7%	3.57	2	-0.43
TBL	Jonas Johansson	33	28	5	84.8%	2.83	2	-2.17

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • CAR at home vs TBL: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-14	TBL 2 - 4 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-02-26	CAR 5 - 4 TBL	CAR	CAR
2025-12-20	TBL 6 - 4 CAR	TBL	CAR
2025-03-11	CAR 4 - 1 TBL	CAR	CAR
2025-01-07	TBL 3 - 2 CAR	TBL	CAR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CAR	18	1	1.30
1	TBL	15	0	1.22
2	CAR	12	0	0.57
2	TBL	14	1	1.17
3	CAR	11	1	0.96
3	TBL	11	1	1.18

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 80.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown