Philadelphia Flyers at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2026-02-26 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 2 - 3 Philadelphia Flyers (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (71% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NYR: 71.1%

PHI: 28.9%

Expected Goals

NYR: 3.05

PHI: 3.11

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 42%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

PHI

Samuel Ersson - 6-5-4 | 0.868 SV% | 3.09 GAA

Stat	NYR	PHI
Season SV%	0.910	0.868
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.51	3.09

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	24	21	3	87.5%	2.91	2	-0.09
PHI	Samuel Ersson	24	22	2	91.7%	1.95	0	-0.05

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 45% • NYR at home vs PHI: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-09	PHI 2 - 6 NYR	NYR	PHI
2026-02-26	NYR 2 - 3 PHI	PHI	NYR
2026-01-17	PHI 3 - 6 NYR	NYR	PHI
2025-12-20	NYR 5 - 4 PHI	NYR	NYR
2025-04-09	NYR 5 - 8 PHI	PHI	PHI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	14	0	0.84
1	PHI	5	0	0.36
2	NYR	9	0	0.43
2	PHI	15	1	1.25
3	NYR	13	0	0.35
3	PHI	11	1	1.09
4	NYR	4	0	0.32
4	PHI	2	0	0.21

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 71.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 2 - 3 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.1 - 3.1