Philadelphia Flyers at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2026-02-26 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 2 - 3 Philadelphia Flyers (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)

Win Probability

NYR: 58.6%

PHI: 41.4%

Expected Goals

NYR: 3.07

PHI: 3.15

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 44%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 36% • NYR at home vs PHI: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-09	PHI 2 - 6 NYR	NYR	PHI
2026-02-26	NYR 2 - 3 PHI	PHI	NYR
2026-01-17	PHI 3 - 6 NYR	NYR	PHI
2025-12-20	NYR 5 - 4 PHI	NYR	NYR
2025-04-09	NYR 5 - 8 PHI	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	14	0	0.84
1	PHI	5	0	0.36
2	NYR	9	0	0.43
2	PHI	15	1	1.25
3	NYR	13	0	0.35
3	PHI	11	1	1.09
4	NYR	4	0	0.32
4	PHI	2	0	0.21

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 2 - 3 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.1 - 3.1