Vegas Golden Knights at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions
2026-02-27 • Capital One Arena
Washington Capitals 3 - 2 Vegas Golden Knights
🚨 Upset Win (58% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
WSH: 41.6%
VGK: 58.4%
Expected Goals
WSH: 3.09
VGK: 3.04
Total Goals
Median: 5.7
Over 5.5: 56%
Over 6.5: 42%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
WSH
Logan Thompson - 31-21-6 | 0.912 SV% | 2.44 GAA
VGK
Akira Schmid - 16-10-6 | 0.893 SV% | 2.59 GAA
| Stat | WSH | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.895 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.912 | 0.879 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.891 | 0.900 |
| GAA | 2.39 | 2.50 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • WSH at home vs VGK: 3-0
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-28 | VGK 4 - 5 WSH | WSH | VGK |
| 2026-02-27 | WSH 3 - 2 VGK | WSH | VGK |
| 2024-11-17 | VGK 2 - 5 WSH | WSH | WSH |
| 2024-10-15 | WSH 4 - 2 VGK | WSH | WSH |
| 2023-12-02 | VGK 4 - 1 WSH | VGK | VGK |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 00:49 | WSH | Goal |
| 2 | 03:23 | WSH | Goal |
| 2 | 14:52 | WSH | Goal |
| 3 | 02:27 | WSH | Goal |
| 3 | 09:15 | WSH | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 58.4%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.1
Score Breakdown
Washington Capitals 3 - 2 Vegas Golden Knights
Expected: 3.1 - 3.0
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