Vegas Golden Knights at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2026-02-27 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 3 - 2 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Win (55% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

WSH: 45.0%

VGK: 55.0%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.14

VGK: 3.08

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

VGK

Akira Schmid - 11-4-4 | 0.895 SV% | 2.50 GAA

Stat	WSH	VGK
Season SV%	0.913	0.895
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.39	2.50

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Logan Thompson	26	24	2	92.3%	4.37	5	2.37
VGK	Akira Schmid	30	27	3	90.0%	2.84	0	-0.16

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • WSH at home vs VGK: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-28	VGK 4 - 5 WSH	WSH	VGK
2026-02-27	WSH 3 - 2 VGK	WSH	VGK
2024-11-17	VGK 2 - 5 WSH	WSH	VGK
2024-10-15	WSH 4 - 2 VGK	WSH	WSH
2023-12-02	VGK 4 - 1 WSH	VGK	VGK

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	15	0	0.69
1	VGK	14	1	1.04
2	WSH	15	0	1.19
2	VGK	13	3	1.39
3	WSH	14	0	0.96
3	VGK	20	1	1.93

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown