Vegas Golden Knights at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2026-02-27 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 3 - 2 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Win (56% underdog)

Win Probability

WSH: 44.0%

VGK: 56.0%

Expected Goals

WSH: 2.94

VGK: 3.26

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 48%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • WSH at home vs VGK: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-28	VGK 4 - 5 WSH	WSH	VGK
2026-02-27	WSH 3 - 2 VGK	WSH	VGK
2024-11-17	VGK 2 - 5 WSH	WSH	WSH
2024-10-15	WSH 4 - 2 VGK	WSH	VGK
2023-12-02	VGK 4 - 1 WSH	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	15	0	0.69
1	VGK	14	1	1.04
2	WSH	15	0	1.19
2	VGK	13	3	1.39
3	WSH	14	0	0.96
3	VGK	20	1	1.93

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 3 - 2 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 2.9 - 3.3