Pittsburgh Penguins at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2026-02-28 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 3 - 2 Pittsburgh Penguins (SO)

🚨 Upset Win (55% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NYR: 45.5%

PIT: 54.5%

Expected Goals

NYR: 3.10

PIT: 3.47

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 49%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

PIT

Stuart Skinner - 12-11-4 | 0.888 SV% | 2.91 GAA

Stat	NYR	PIT
Season SV%	0.910	0.888
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.51	2.91

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	34	32	2	94.1%	3.88	2	1.88
PIT	Stuart Skinner	27	24	3	88.9%	4.33	3	1.33

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 36% • NYR at home vs PIT: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-28	NYR 3 - 2 PIT	NYR	PIT
2026-01-31	PIT 6 - 5 NYR	PIT	PIT
2025-10-11	PIT 1 - 6 NYR	NYR	PIT
2025-10-07	NYR 0 - 3 PIT	PIT	PIT
2025-02-23	PIT 3 - 5 NYR	NYR	PIT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	6	0	0.24
1	PIT	18	1	1.60
2	NYR	19	0	1.37
2	PIT	17	1	1.25
3	NYR	17	2	1.54
3	PIT	6	0	0.18
4	NYR	5	0	0.32
4	PIT	6	0	0.63
5	NYR	2	1	0.87
5	PIT	3	0	0.22

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 3 - 2 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.1 - 3.5