Boston Bruins at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2026-02-28 • Xfinity Mobile Arena

Philadelphia Flyers 3 - 1 Boston Bruins

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

PHI: 53.4%

BOS: 46.6%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.11

BOS: 2.72

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

PHI

Dan Vladar - 14-6-3 | 0.910 SV% | 2.40 GAA

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

Stat	PHI	BOS
Season SV%	0.910	0.903
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.40	2.84

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	Dan Vladar	27	26	1	96.3%	2.28	2	1.28
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	17	14	3	82.4%	3.00	3	-0.00

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • PHI at home vs BOS: 4-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-10	BOS 5 - 1 PHI	BOS	BOS
2026-04-05	PHI 2 - 1 BOS	PHI	PHI
2026-02-28	PHI 3 - 1 BOS	PHI	PHI
2026-01-29	BOS 6 - 3 PHI	BOS	BOS
2024-12-07	BOS 4 - 3 PHI	BOS	BOS

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	10	0	0.66
1	BOS	11	0	0.63
2	PHI	11	1	1.01
2	BOS	19	2	1.35
3	PHI	8	2	1.32
3	BOS	11	0	0.30

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown