New York Islanders at Columbus Blue Jackets NHL Predictions

2026-02-28 • Nationwide Arena

Columbus Blue Jackets 3 - 4 New York Islanders (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CBJ: 58.9%

NYI: 41.1%

Expected Goals

CBJ: 3.47

NYI: 2.94

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 51%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CBJ

Jet Greaves - 11-10-5 | 0.909 SV% | 2.62 GAA

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

Stat	CBJ	NYI
Season SV%	0.909	0.910
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.62	2.55

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CBJ	Jet Greaves	27	23	4	85.2%	2.56	2	-1.44
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	30	27	3	90.0%	2.65	1	-0.35

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 63% • CBJ at home vs NYI: 5-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-22	NYI 1 - 0 CBJ	NYI	NYI
2026-02-28	CBJ 3 - 4 NYI	NYI	CBJ
2025-12-28	CBJ 4 - 2 NYI	CBJ	CBJ
2025-11-02	NYI 3 - 2 CBJ	NYI	NYI
2025-04-17	CBJ 6 - 1 NYI	CBJ	NYI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CBJ	14	1	1.12
1	NYI	11	0	0.60
2	CBJ	20	0	1.13
2	NYI	17	1	0.88
3	CBJ	10	0	0.39
3	NYI	15	0	0.73
4	CBJ	0	0	0.00
4	NYI	1	1	0.35

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Columbus Blue Jackets 3 - 4 New York Islanders

Expected: 3.5 - 2.9