Chicago Blackhawks at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2026-02-28 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 3 - 1 Chicago Blackhawks

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

COL: 85.7%

CHI: 14.3%

Expected Goals

COL: 4.02

CHI: 1.92

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

COL

Mackenzie Blackwood - 13-1-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.07 GAA

CHI

Spencer Knight - 11-11-6 | 0.909 SV% | 2.63 GAA

Stat	COL	CHI
Season SV%	0.924	0.909
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.07	2.63

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Mackenzie Blackwood	15	14	1	93.3%	2.14	1	1.14
CHI	Spencer Knight	35	32	3	91.4%	4.27	3	1.27

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • COL at home vs CHI: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-20	CHI 1 - 4 COL	COL	COL
2026-02-28	COL 3 - 1 CHI	COL	COL
2025-11-23	CHI 0 - 1 COL	COL	COL
2025-04-02	CHI 2 - 3 COL	COL	COL
2025-03-10	COL 3 - 0 CHI	COL	COL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	23	0	1.35
1	CHI	9	0	0.66
2	COL	20	1	1.59
2	CHI	7	0	0.34
3	COL	12	2	1.32
3	CHI	11	1	1.13

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 85.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown