Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions
2026-02-28 • Scotiabank Arena
Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 5 Ottawa Senators
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TOR: 41.3%
OTT: 58.7%
Expected Goals
TOR: 2.73
OTT: 3.12
Total Goals
Median: 5.7
Over 5.5: 53%
Over 6.5: 37%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TOR
Joseph Woll - 15-16-7 | 0.898 SV% | 3.34 GAA
OTT
Linus Ullmark - 28-12-8 | 0.891 SV% | 2.73 GAA
| Stat | TOR | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.914 | 0.881 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.863 | 0.921 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.854 | 0.843 |
| GAA | 2.74 | 2.95 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 71% • TOR at home vs OTT: 3-6
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-15 | OTT 3 - 1 TOR | OTT | OTT |
| 2026-03-21 | OTT 5 - 2 TOR | OTT | OTT |
| 2026-02-28 | TOR 2 - 5 OTT | OTT | OTT |
| 2025-12-27 | TOR 7 - 5 OTT | TOR | OTT |
| 2025-05-01 | OTT 2 - 4 TOR | TOR | OTT |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 58.7%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 5.9
Score Breakdown
Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 5 Ottawa Senators
Expected: 2.7 - 3.1
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