Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2026-02-28 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 5 Ottawa Senators

Win Probability

TOR: 33.6%

OTT: 66.4%

Expected Goals

TOR: 2.53

OTT: 3.55

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 46%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 65% • TOR at home vs OTT: 3-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-15	OTT 3 - 1 TOR	OTT	OTT
2026-03-21	OTT 5 - 2 TOR	OTT	OTT
2026-02-28	TOR 2 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-12-27	TOR 7 - 5 OTT	TOR	OTT
2025-05-01	OTT 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	3	0	0.21
1	OTT	25	1	1.59
2	TOR	14	2	1.81
2	OTT	21	0	1.35
3	TOR	20	0	0.59
3	OTT	13	0	0.94

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 66.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 5 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 2.5 - 3.5