Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2026-02-28 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 5 Ottawa Senators

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TOR: 41.1%

OTT: 58.9%

Expected Goals

TOR: 2.83

OTT: 3.37

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TOR

Joseph Woll - 8-4-1 | 0.914 SV% | 2.74 GAA

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

Stat	TOR	OTT
Season SV%	0.914	0.881
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.74	2.95

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Joseph Woll	40	35	5	87.5%	3.87	1	-1.13
OTT	Linus Ullmark	23	21	2	91.3%	2.62	2	0.62

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 71% • TOR at home vs OTT: 3-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-15	OTT 3 - 1 TOR	OTT	OTT
2026-03-21	OTT 5 - 2 TOR	OTT	OTT
2026-02-28	TOR 2 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-12-27	TOR 7 - 5 OTT	TOR	OTT
2025-05-01	OTT 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	OTT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	3	0	0.21
1	OTT	25	1	1.59
2	TOR	14	2	1.81
2	OTT	21	0	1.35
3	TOR	20	0	0.59
3	OTT	13	0	0.94

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 58.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown