Buffalo Sabres at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2026-02-28 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 6 Buffalo Sabres

🚨 Upset Loss (76% underdog)

Win Probability

TBL: 76.0%

BUF: 24.0%

Expected Goals

TBL: 4.21

BUF: 2.44

Total Goals

Median: 7.3

Over 5.5: 76%

Over 6.5: 62%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 39-15-4 | 0.911 SV% | 2.31 GAA

BUF

Alex Lyon - 20-10-4 | 0.906 SV% | 2.77 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • TBL at home vs BUF: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-06	BUF 4 - 2 TBL	BUF	TBL
2026-03-08	BUF 8 - 7 TBL	BUF	BUF
2026-02-28	TBL 2 - 6 BUF	BUF	TBL
2026-02-03	TBL 4 - 3 BUF	TBL	TBL
2025-04-13	TBL 7 - 4 BUF	TBL	TBL

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 76.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 6 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 4.2 - 2.4