Buffalo Sabres at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2026-02-28 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 6 Buffalo Sabres

🚨 Upset Loss (77% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TBL: 77.4%

BUF: 22.6%

Expected Goals

TBL: 4.05

BUF: 2.88

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 43%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

Stat	TBL	BUF
Season SV%	0.913	0.903
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.33	2.46

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	35	29	6	82.9%	4.59	3	-1.41
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	38	36	2	94.7%	3.14	1	1.14

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • TBL at home vs BUF: 5-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-06	BUF 4 - 2 TBL	BUF	TBL
2026-03-08	BUF 8 - 7 TBL	BUF	TBL
2026-02-28	TBL 2 - 6 BUF	BUF	TBL
2026-02-03	TBL 4 - 3 BUF	TBL	TBL
2025-04-13	TBL 7 - 4 BUF	TBL	TBL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	19	0	1.24
1	BUF	16	1	1.66
2	TBL	15	1	0.97
2	BUF	26	0	2.16
3	TBL	17	0	0.94
3	BUF	8	2	0.77

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 77.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.9

Score Breakdown