Detroit Red Wings at Carolina Hurricanes NHL Predictions

2026-02-28 • Lenovo Center

Carolina Hurricanes 5 - 2 Detroit Red Wings

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CAR: 78.6%

DET: 21.4%

Expected Goals

CAR: 4.05

DET: 2.68

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 49%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CAR

Frederik Andersen - 5-9-2 | 0.865 SV% | 3.38 GAA

DET

Cam Talbot - 11-6-3 | 0.888 SV% | 2.99 GAA

Stat	CAR	DET
Season SV%	0.865	0.888
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.38	2.99

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CAR	Frederik Andersen	29	27	2	93.1%	2.40	2	0.40
DET	Cam Talbot	36	31	5	86.1%	3.40	3	-1.60

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 78% • CAR at home vs DET: 5-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-28	CAR 5 - 2 DET	CAR	CAR
2026-01-12	DET 4 - 3 CAR	DET	CAR
2025-12-27	CAR 5 - 2 DET	CAR	CAR
2025-04-04	DET 5 - 3 CAR	DET	CAR
2025-03-14	CAR 4 - 2 DET	CAR	CAR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CAR	16	1	1.26
1	DET	7	1	0.39
2	CAR	15	2	1.16
2	DET	21	1	1.74
3	CAR	15	0	0.98
3	DET	7	0	0.28

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 78.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown