New Jersey Devils at St. Louis Blues NHL Predictions

2026-02-28 • Enterprise Center

St. Louis Blues 1 - 3 New Jersey Devils

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

STL: 51.4%

NJD: 48.6%

Expected Goals

STL: 3.16

NJD: 3.02

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 41%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

NJD

Jacob Markstrom - 9-9-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.32 GAA

Stat	STL	NJD
Season SV%	0.869	0.884
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.56	3.32

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
STL	Jordan Binnington	33	30	3	90.9%	4.56	4	1.56
NJD	Jacob Markstrom	26	25	1	96.2%	1.84	1	0.84

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • STL at home vs NJD: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-28	STL 1 - 3 NJD	NJD	STL
2025-11-26	NJD 3 - 2 STL	NJD	NJD
2024-12-17	STL 1 - 4 NJD	NJD	NJD
2024-11-27	NJD 0 - 3 STL	STL	NJD
2024-03-07	NJD 4 - 1 STL	NJD	NJD

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	STL	16	0	0.73
1	NJD	16	0	0.71
2	STL	9	0	0.24
2	NJD	24	1	2.00
3	STL	15	1	0.87
3	NJD	8	3	1.85

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown