Nashville Predators at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2026-02-28 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 3 - 2 Nashville Predators (OT)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

DAL: 60.9%

NSH: 39.1%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.48

NSH: 2.77

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

NSH

Juuse Saros - 15-13-3 | 0.897 SV% | 2.93 GAA

Stat	DAL	NSH
Season SV%	0.907	0.897
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.57	2.93

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	27	25	2	92.6%	2.96	2	0.96
NSH	Juuse Saros	25	22	3	88.0%	3.40	5	0.40

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • DAL at home vs NSH: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-28	DAL 3 - 2 NSH	DAL	DAL
2025-11-08	NSH 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	NSH
2025-10-26	NSH 2 - 3 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-04-16	NSH 5 - 1 DAL	NSH	NSH
2025-04-03	DAL 5 - 1 NSH	DAL	DAL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	11	1	1.06
1	NSH	13	1	1.44
2	DAL	14	2	1.02
2	NSH	7	0	0.37
3	DAL	13	1	0.89
3	NSH	13	1	0.94
4	DAL	2	1	0.44
4	NSH	2	0	0.21

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 60.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 3 - 2 Nashville Predators

Expected: 3.5 - 2.8