Vegas Golden Knights at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2026-03-01 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 5 - 0 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

PIT: 47.4%

VGK: 52.6%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.48

VGK: 2.83

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

PIT

Arturs Silovs - 7-5-6 | 0.886 SV% | 3.20 GAA

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

Stat	PIT	VGK
Season SV%	0.886	0.888
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.20	2.73

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Arturs Silovs	22	22	0	100.0%	1.97	1	1.97
VGK	Adin Hill	22	17	5	77.3%	2.71	2	-2.29

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • PIT at home vs VGK: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-12	VGK 6 - 2 PIT	VGK	VGK
2026-03-01	PIT 5 - 0 VGK	PIT	VGK
2025-03-11	PIT 3 - 2 VGK	PIT	VGK
2025-03-07	VGK 4 - 0 PIT	VGK	VGK
2024-01-20	VGK 3 - 2 PIT	VGK	PIT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	8	0	0.45
1	VGK	7	0	0.26
2	PIT	15	2	1.90
2	VGK	15	0	0.83
3	PIT	7	0	0.36
3	VGK	13	1	0.87

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown