Florida Panthers at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2026-03-01 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 5 - 4 Florida Panthers

🚨 Upset Win (57% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NYI: 43.4%

FLA: 56.6%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.02

FLA: 3.06

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 43%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NYI

David Rittich - 10-5-2 | 0.909 SV% | 2.46 GAA

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Stat	NYI	FLA
Season SV%	0.909	0.888
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.46	2.80

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	David Rittich	33	29	4	87.9%	3.81	1	-0.19
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	26	21	5	80.8%	2.13	0	-2.87

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • NYI at home vs FLA: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-28	NYI 5 - 2 FLA	NYI	NYI
2026-03-01	NYI 5 - 4 FLA	NYI	FLA
2025-12-07	FLA 4 - 1 NYI	FLA	FLA
2025-03-16	NYI 4 - 2 FLA	NYI	NYI
2025-02-02	FLA 6 - 3 NYI	FLA	NYI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	10	0	0.62
1	FLA	18	0	0.75
2	NYI	12	0	0.71
2	FLA	15	0	0.43
3	NYI	17	0	0.81
3	FLA	27	1	2.63

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown