Winnipeg Jets at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2026-03-01 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 2 - 1 Winnipeg Jets (OT)

🚨 Upset Win (58% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

SJS: 41.6%

WPG: 58.4%

Expected Goals

SJS: 3.03

WPG: 2.93

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

SJS

Alex Nedeljkovic - 5-7-2 | 0.895 SV% | 3.06 GAA

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Stat	SJS	WPG
Season SV%	0.895	0.907
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.06	2.51

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SJS	Alex Nedeljkovic	17	16	1	94.1%	1.58	1	0.58
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	20	20	0	100.0%	1.55	0	1.55

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • SJS at home vs WPG: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-16	WPG 1 - 6 SJS	SJS	WPG
2026-03-01	SJS 2 - 1 WPG	SJS	WPG
2025-11-07	SJS 2 - 1 WPG	SJS	WPG
2025-02-24	WPG 2 - 1 SJS	WPG	WPG
2024-12-17	SJS 3 - 4 WPG	WPG	WPG

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	24	0	1.17
1	WPG	9	0	0.39
2	SJS	6	0	0.17
2	WPG	11	1	1.19
3	SJS	2	0	0.20
3	WPG	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

San Jose Sharks 2 - 1 Winnipeg Jets

Expected: 3.0 - 2.9