Pittsburgh Penguins at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2026-03-03 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 2 - 1 Pittsburgh Penguins

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

BOS: 52.1%

PIT: 47.9%

Expected Goals

BOS: 3.06

PIT: 3.04

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

PIT

Stuart Skinner - 12-11-4 | 0.888 SV% | 2.91 GAA

Stat	BOS	PIT
Season SV%	0.903	0.888
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.84	2.91

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	35	34	1	97.1%	3.92	4	2.92
PIT	Stuart Skinner	28	26	2	92.9%	4.00	3	2.00

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • BOS at home vs PIT: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-08	PIT 5 - 4 BOS	PIT	PIT
2026-03-03	BOS 2 - 1 PIT	BOS	BOS
2026-01-11	BOS 1 - 0 PIT	BOS	PIT
2025-04-13	PIT 1 - 4 BOS	BOS	PIT
2025-03-01	PIT 2 - 3 BOS	BOS	PIT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	21	0	1.37
1	PIT	11	0	0.78
2	BOS	16	2	1.26
2	PIT	23	3	1.98
3	BOS	10	1	1.36
3	PIT	21	1	1.16

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown