Pittsburgh Penguins at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2026-03-03 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 2 - 1 Pittsburgh Penguins

Win Probability

BOS: 50.5%

PIT: 49.5%

Expected Goals

BOS: 3.08

PIT: 2.90

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 68%

Over 6.5: 48%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • BOS at home vs PIT: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-08	PIT 5 - 4 BOS	PIT	PIT
2026-03-03	BOS 2 - 1 PIT	BOS	BOS
2026-01-11	BOS 1 - 0 PIT	BOS	BOS
2025-04-13	PIT 1 - 4 BOS	BOS	PIT
2025-03-01	PIT 2 - 3 BOS	BOS	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	21	0	1.37
1	PIT	11	0	0.78
2	BOS	16	2	1.26
2	PIT	23	3	1.98
3	BOS	10	1	1.36
3	PIT	21	1	1.16

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Boston Bruins 2 - 1 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.1 - 2.9