Vegas Golden Knights at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions
2026-03-03 • KeyBank Center
Buffalo Sabres 3 - 2 Vegas Golden Knights
🚨 Upset Win (54% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
BUF: 46.3%
VGK: 53.7%
Expected Goals
BUF: 3.87
VGK: 3.40
Total Goals
Median: 9.1
Over 5.5: 88%
Over 6.5: 80%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
BUF
Alex Lyon - 20-10-4 | 0.906 SV% | 2.77 GAA
VGK
Akira Schmid - 16-10-6 | 0.893 SV% | 2.59 GAA
| Stat | BUF | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.906 | 0.895 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.847 | 0.879 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.931 | 0.893 |
| GAA | 2.82 | 2.50 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • BUF at home vs VGK: 3-0
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-17 | VGK 0 - 2 BUF | BUF | VGK |
| 2026-03-03 | BUF 3 - 2 VGK | BUF | VGK |
| 2025-03-15 | BUF 4 - 3 VGK | BUF | VGK |
| 2025-01-04 | VGK 3 - 1 BUF | VGK | VGK |
| 2024-03-02 | BUF 7 - 2 VGK | BUF | BUF |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 53.7%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 7.3
Score Breakdown
Buffalo Sabres 3 - 2 Vegas Golden Knights
Expected: 3.9 - 3.4
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