Vegas Golden Knights at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2026-03-03 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 3 - 2 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Win (56% underdog)

Win Probability

BUF: 44.4%

VGK: 55.6%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.11

VGK: 3.32

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 47%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • BUF at home vs VGK: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-17	VGK 0 - 2 BUF	BUF	VGK
2026-03-03	BUF 3 - 2 VGK	BUF	VGK
2025-03-15	BUF 4 - 3 VGK	BUF	VGK
2025-01-04	VGK 3 - 1 BUF	VGK	VGK
2024-03-02	BUF 7 - 2 VGK	BUF	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	17	0	0.87
1	VGK	14	2	1.66
2	BUF	18	1	1.57
2	VGK	22	3	2.08
3	BUF	11	2	1.30
3	VGK	12	0	0.51

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 3 - 2 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.1 - 3.3