Utah Hockey Club at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2026-03-03 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 2 - 3 Utah Hockey Club

🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

WSH: 56.7%

UTA: 43.3%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.23

UTA: 3.49

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 50%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

UTA

Karel Vejmelka - 17-10-2 | 0.895 SV% | 2.68 GAA

Stat	WSH	UTA
Season SV%	0.913	0.895
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.39	2.68

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Logan Thompson	23	20	3	87.0%	3.46	2	0.46
UTA	Karel Vejmelka	25	23	2	92.0%	2.71	3	0.71

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 0% • WSH at home vs UTA: 0-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-26	UTA 4 - 7 WSH	WSH	UTA
2026-03-03	WSH 2 - 3 UTA	UTA	WSH
2025-02-09	WSH 4 - 5 UTA	UTA	WSH
2024-11-18	UTA 2 - 6 WSH	WSH	UTA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	10	1	0.64
1	UTA	14	0	0.75
2	WSH	12	1	1.06
2	UTA	13	0	1.04
3	WSH	17	1	1.01
3	UTA	13	2	1.67

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown