Dallas Stars at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2026-03-03 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 1 - 6 Dallas Stars

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

Win Probability

CGY: 55.3%

DAL: 44.7%

Expected Goals

CGY: 2.87

DAL: 3.55

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 49%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • CGY at home vs DAL: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	DAL 4 - 3 CGY	DAL	DAL
2026-03-03	CGY 1 - 6 DAL	DAL	CGY
2025-11-22	CGY 3 - 2 DAL	CGY	CGY
2025-03-27	CGY 2 - 5 DAL	DAL	CGY
2025-03-06	DAL 3 - 2 CGY	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	11	0	0.38
1	DAL	13	0	0.67
2	CGY	12	0	0.47
2	DAL	12	0	0.90
3	CGY	11	0	0.60
3	DAL	19	1	1.67

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 1 - 6 Dallas Stars

Expected: 2.9 - 3.5