Dallas Stars at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2026-03-03 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 1 - 6 Dallas Stars

🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CGY: 56.7%

DAL: 43.3%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.07

DAL: 2.77

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 49%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

DAL

Casey DeSmith - 9-2-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.44 GAA

Stat	CGY	DAL
Season SV%	0.901	0.912
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.82	2.44

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	Dustin Wolf	35	29	6	82.9%	3.25	1	-2.75
DAL	Casey DeSmith	21	20	1	95.2%	1.45	0	0.45

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • CGY at home vs DAL: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	DAL 4 - 3 CGY	DAL	DAL
2026-03-03	CGY 1 - 6 DAL	DAL	CGY
2025-11-22	CGY 3 - 2 DAL	CGY	CGY
2025-03-27	CGY 2 - 5 DAL	DAL	CGY
2025-03-06	DAL 3 - 2 CGY	DAL	DAL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	11	0	0.38
1	DAL	13	0	0.67
2	CGY	12	0	0.47
2	DAL	12	0	0.90
3	CGY	11	0	0.60
3	DAL	19	1	1.67

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown