Ottawa Senators at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2026-03-03 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 5 - 4 Ottawa Senators (OT)

🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)

Win Probability

EDM: 48.2%

OTT: 51.8%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.28

OTT: 3.21

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 49%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • EDM at home vs OTT: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-03	EDM 5 - 4 OTT	EDM	OTT
2025-10-21	OTT 2 - 3 EDM	EDM	EDM
2024-12-22	EDM 3 - 1 OTT	EDM	EDM
2024-11-19	OTT 2 - 5 EDM	EDM	OTT
2024-03-24	OTT 5 - 3 EDM	OTT	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	15	0	1.21
1	OTT	12	0	0.89
2	EDM	23	0	1.01
2	OTT	15	0	0.91
3	EDM	17	2	1.73
3	OTT	6	0	0.46
4	EDM	3	0	0.37
4	OTT	1	0	0.04

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 5 - 4 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.3 - 3.2