Tampa Bay Lightning at Minnesota Wild NHL Predictions

2026-03-03 • Grand Casino Arena

Minnesota Wild 5 - 1 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Win (58% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

MIN: 41.8%

TBL: 58.2%

Expected Goals

MIN: 2.89

TBL: 3.31

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

MIN

Filip Gustavsson - 13-8-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.47 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Stat	MIN	TBL
Season SV%	0.912	0.913
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.47	2.33

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MIN	Filip Gustavsson	25	24	1	96.0%	2.47	0	1.47
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	22	17	5	77.3%	3.57	3	-1.43

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • MIN at home vs TBL: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-24	TBL 6 - 3 MIN	TBL	TBL
2026-03-03	MIN 5 - 1 TBL	MIN	TBL
2024-11-01	MIN 5 - 3 TBL	MIN	MIN
2024-10-24	TBL 2 - 4 MIN	MIN	TBL
2024-01-18	TBL 7 - 3 MIN	TBL	TBL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MIN	11	0	0.73
1	TBL	16	0	1.05
2	MIN	9	1	0.69
2	TBL	9	0	0.60
3	MIN	16	2	2.15
3	TBL	12	0	0.82

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown