Colorado Avalanche at Anaheim Ducks NHL Predictions

2026-03-03 • Honda Center

Anaheim Ducks 1 - 5 Colorado Avalanche

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

ANA: 54.5%

COL: 45.5%

Expected Goals

ANA: 3.35

COL: 3.33

Total Goals

Median: 6.8

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 52%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

ANA

Lukas Dostal - 13-9-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.15 GAA

COL

Scott Wedgewood - 17-1-4 | 0.919 SV% | 2.13 GAA

Stat	ANA	COL
Season SV%	0.888	0.919
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.15	2.13

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
ANA	Lukas Dostal	26	21	5	80.8%	3.05	1	-1.95
COL	Scott Wedgewood	28	27	1	96.4%	3.09	2	2.09

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • ANA at home vs COL: 1-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-03	ANA 1 - 5 COL	COL	ANA
2026-01-21	COL 1 - 2 ANA	ANA	COL
2025-11-11	COL 4 - 1 ANA	COL	COL
2025-04-13	ANA 2 - 4 COL	COL	COL
2024-12-20	ANA 2 - 4 COL	COL	COL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	ANA	15	1	1.03
1	COL	8	0	0.82
2	ANA	13	0	0.72
2	COL	20	0	1.15
3	ANA	16	1	1.34
3	COL	13	1	1.08

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown