Montreal Canadiens at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2026-03-03 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 7 - 5 Montreal Canadiens

🚨 Upset Win (57% underdog)

Win Probability

SJS: 43.2%

MTL: 56.8%

Expected Goals

SJS: 3.19

MTL: 3.19

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 47%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • SJS at home vs MTL: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-14	MTL 2 - 4 SJS	SJS	MTL
2026-03-03	SJS 7 - 5 MTL	SJS	MTL
2025-02-27	MTL 4 - 3 SJS	MTL	MTL
2025-02-04	SJS 3 - 4 MTL	MTL	MTL
2024-01-11	MTL 2 - 3 SJS	SJS	MTL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	13	0	0.74
1	MTL	12	0	0.28
2	SJS	11	2	1.05
2	MTL	16	0	1.06
3	SJS	13	2	1.85
3	MTL	29	0	2.13

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 12.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

San Jose Sharks 7 - 5 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.2 - 3.2