Vegas Golden Knights at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2026-03-04 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 3 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

Win Probability

DET: 54.8%

VGK: 45.2%

Expected Goals

DET: 2.97

VGK: 3.32

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 47%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • DET at home vs VGK: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-04	DET 3 - 4 VGK	VGK	DET
2025-11-04	VGK 1 - 0 DET	VGK	VGK
2025-03-22	VGK 6 - 3 DET	VGK	VGK
2025-03-16	DET 3 - 0 VGK	DET	DET
2024-03-09	VGK 5 - 3 DET	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	14	0	0.88
1	VGK	13	1	0.97
2	DET	14	0	0.93
2	VGK	11	2	1.06
3	DET	10	1	1.05
3	VGK	13	1	0.89
4	DET	1	0	0.15
4	VGK	4	0	0.58

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 3 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.0 - 3.3