Vegas Golden Knights at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions
2026-03-04 • Little Caesars Arena
Detroit Red Wings 3 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights (OT)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
DET: 46.2%
VGK: 53.8%
Expected Goals
DET: 2.87
VGK: 2.84
Total Goals
Median: 4.8
Over 5.5: 38%
Over 6.5: 25%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
DET
John Gibson - 29-22-4 | 0.901 SV% | 2.72 GAA
VGK
Akira Schmid - 16-10-6 | 0.893 SV% | 2.59 GAA
| Stat | DET | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.893 | 0.895 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.862 | 0.879 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.971 | 1.000 |
| GAA | 2.97 | 2.50 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • DET at home vs VGK: 2-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-04 | DET 3 - 4 VGK | VGK | VGK |
| 2025-11-04 | VGK 1 - 0 DET | VGK | VGK |
| 2025-03-22 | VGK 6 - 3 DET | VGK | DET |
| 2025-03-16 | DET 3 - 0 VGK | DET | DET |
| 2024-03-09 | VGK 5 - 3 DET | VGK | VGK |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 53.8%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 5.7
Score Breakdown
Detroit Red Wings 3 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights
Expected: 2.9 - 2.8
Like this analysis? Get it daily.
Short, data-driven emails. Unsubscribe any time.