Toronto Maple Leafs at New Jersey Devils NHL Predictions

2026-03-04 • Prudential Center

New Jersey Devils 4 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs (SO)

🚨 Upset Win (50% underdog)

Win Probability

NJD: 49.9%

TOR: 50.1%

Expected Goals

NJD: 3.11

TOR: 3.14

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 52%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • NJD at home vs TOR: 1-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-04	NJD 4 - 3 TOR	NJD	TOR
2025-12-30	TOR 4 - 0 NJD	TOR	TOR
2025-10-21	TOR 2 - 5 NJD	NJD	TOR
2025-01-16	TOR 4 - 3 NJD	TOR	TOR
2024-12-10	NJD 1 - 2 TOR	TOR	NJD

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NJD	17	0	1.23
1	TOR	16	0	1.07
2	NJD	21	2	2.04
2	TOR	12	0	0.73
3	NJD	26	1	1.45
3	TOR	9	1	0.71
4	NJD	4	0	0.39
4	TOR	3	0	0.26
5	NJD	2	2	1.59
5	TOR	2	0	0.16

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

New Jersey Devils 4 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.1 - 3.1