Carolina Hurricanes at Vancouver Canucks NHL Predictions

2026-03-04 • Rogers Arena

Vancouver Canucks 4 - 6 Carolina Hurricanes

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

VAN: 23.8%

CAR: 76.2%

Expected Goals

VAN: 2.87

CAR: 3.44

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 49%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

VAN

Kevin Lankinen - 6-10-3 | 0.885 SV% | 3.41 GAA

CAR

Brandon Bussi - 13-2-1 | 0.901 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Stat	VAN	CAR
Season SV%	0.885	0.901
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.41	2.33

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VAN	Kevin Lankinen	33	27	6	81.8%	3.93	1	-2.07
CAR	Brandon Bussi	22	18	4	81.8%	2.06	1	-1.94

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • VAN at home vs CAR: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-04	VAN 4 - 6 CAR	CAR	CAR
2025-11-14	CAR 4 - 3 VAN	CAR	CAR
2025-01-10	CAR 2 - 0 VAN	CAR	CAR
2024-10-28	VAN 3 - 4 CAR	CAR	CAR
2024-02-06	CAR 2 - 3 VAN	VAN	CAR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VAN	8	0	0.29
1	CAR	21	0	1.31
2	VAN	9	1	0.85
2	CAR	16	0	1.25
3	VAN	14	0	0.93
3	CAR	12	1	1.37

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 76.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown