New York Islanders at Anaheim Ducks NHL Predictions

2026-03-04 • Honda Center

Anaheim Ducks 5 - 1 New York Islanders

🚨 Upset Win (56% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

ANA: 44.2%

NYI: 55.8%

Expected Goals

ANA: 3.28

NYI: 3.35

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 49%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

ANA

Ville Husso - 5-3-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.25 GAA

NYI

David Rittich - 10-5-2 | 0.909 SV% | 2.46 GAA

Stat	ANA	NYI
Season SV%	0.884	0.909
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.25	2.46

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
ANA	Ville Husso	43	42	1	97.7%	3.52	1	2.52
NYI	David Rittich	26	21	5	80.8%	3.98	3	-1.02

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • ANA at home vs NYI: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-04	ANA 5 - 1 NYI	ANA	NYI
2025-12-11	NYI 5 - 2 ANA	NYI	NYI
2025-03-09	ANA 4 - 1 NYI	ANA	ANA
2024-10-29	NYI 1 - 3 ANA	ANA	NYI
2024-03-10	ANA 1 - 6 NYI	NYI	NYI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	ANA	17	1	1.65
1	NYI	26	1	1.59
2	ANA	9	0	0.35
2	NYI	19	0	1.14
3	ANA	19	2	1.98
3	NYI	17	0	0.78

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown