St. Louis Blues at Seattle Kraken NHL Predictions

2026-03-04 • Climate Pledge Arena

Seattle Kraken 2 - 3 St. Louis Blues

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

SEA: 44.5%

STL: 55.5%

Expected Goals

SEA: 3.10

STL: 2.90

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

SEA

Philipp Grubauer - 7-3-1 | 0.920 SV% | 2.32 GAA

STL

Joel Hofer - 8-8-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.87 GAA

Stat	SEA	STL
Season SV%	0.920	0.901
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.32	2.87

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SEA	Philipp Grubauer	27	24	3	88.9%	3.07	3	0.07
STL	Joel Hofer	36	34	2	94.4%	4.04	5	2.04

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 78% • SEA at home vs STL: 1-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-04	SEA 2 - 3 STL	STL	STL
2026-02-26	STL 5 - 1 SEA	STL	STL
2025-11-08	STL 3 - 4 SEA	SEA	STL
2025-04-12	SEA 4 - 3 STL	SEA	STL
2025-02-25	STL 7 - 2 SEA	STL	STL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SEA	16	1	1.22
1	STL	19	2	1.90
2	SEA	19	2	1.57
2	STL	8	1	0.71
3	SEA	19	2	1.26
3	STL	9	0	0.46

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown