Toronto Maple Leafs at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2026-03-05 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 6 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs

Win Probability

NYR: 64.0%

TOR: 36.0%

Expected Goals

NYR: 3.14

TOR: 2.92

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 46%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • NYR at home vs TOR: 1-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-25	TOR 4 - 3 NYR	TOR	NYR
2026-03-05	NYR 6 - 2 TOR	NYR	NYR
2025-10-16	TOR 2 - 1 NYR	TOR	NYR
2025-03-20	NYR 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	NYR
2025-02-28	NYR 2 - 3 TOR	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	8	0	0.50
1	TOR	15	0	1.07
2	NYR	11	1	1.00
2	TOR	15	0	1.05
3	NYR	17	1	1.75
3	TOR	15	0	0.96

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 64.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 6 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.1 - 2.9