Toronto Maple Leafs at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2026-03-05 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 6 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NYR: 59.4%

TOR: 40.6%

Expected Goals

NYR: 3.09

TOR: 2.92

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

TOR

Joseph Woll - 8-4-1 | 0.914 SV% | 2.74 GAA

Stat	NYR	TOR
Season SV%	0.910	0.914
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.51	2.74

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	32	30	2	93.8%	3.08	0	1.08
TOR	Joseph Woll	24	18	6	75.0%	3.26	2	-2.74

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • NYR at home vs TOR: 1-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-25	TOR 4 - 3 NYR	TOR	NYR
2026-03-05	NYR 6 - 2 TOR	NYR	NYR
2025-10-16	TOR 2 - 1 NYR	TOR	NYR
2025-03-20	NYR 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	NYR
2025-02-28	NYR 2 - 3 TOR	TOR	TOR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	8	0	0.50
1	TOR	15	0	1.07
2	NYR	11	1	1.00
2	TOR	15	0	1.05
3	NYR	17	1	1.75
3	TOR	15	0	0.96

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 59.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown