Buffalo Sabres at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2026-03-05 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 1 - 5 Buffalo Sabres

🚨 Upset Loss (67% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

PIT: 67.2%

BUF: 32.8%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.33

BUF: 3.01

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 51%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

PIT

Arturs Silovs - 7-5-6 | 0.886 SV% | 3.20 GAA

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

Stat	PIT	BUF
Season SV%	0.886	0.903
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.20	2.46

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Arturs Silovs	26	21	5	80.8%	4.59	3	-0.41
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	28	27	1	96.4%	3.03	4	2.03

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • PIT at home vs BUF: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-05	PIT 1 - 5 BUF	BUF	PIT
2026-02-05	BUF 2 - 5 PIT	PIT	PIT
2025-11-26	PIT 4 - 2 BUF	PIT	PIT
2025-03-27	BUF 7 - 3 PIT	BUF	BUF
2025-01-17	BUF 2 - 5 PIT	PIT	PIT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	9	2	0.93
1	BUF	15	0	1.09
2	PIT	19	0	1.02
2	BUF	15	2	1.78
3	PIT	13	2	1.08
3	BUF	18	1	1.71

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 67.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown