Buffalo Sabres at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2026-03-05 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 1 - 5 Buffalo Sabres

🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)

Win Probability

PIT: 59.9%

BUF: 40.1%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.23

BUF: 3.18

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 51%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • PIT at home vs BUF: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-05	PIT 1 - 5 BUF	BUF	PIT
2026-02-05	BUF 2 - 5 PIT	PIT	PIT
2025-11-26	PIT 4 - 2 BUF	PIT	PIT
2025-03-27	BUF 7 - 3 PIT	BUF	BUF
2025-01-17	BUF 2 - 5 PIT	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	9	2	0.93
1	BUF	15	0	1.09
2	PIT	19	0	1.02
2	BUF	15	2	1.78
3	PIT	13	2	1.08
3	BUF	18	1	1.71

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 1 - 5 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.2 - 3.2