Buffalo Sabres at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2026-03-05 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 1 - 5 Buffalo Sabres

🚨 Upset Loss (65% underdog)

Win Probability

PIT: 64.6%

BUF: 35.4%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.12

BUF: 2.91

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 42%

PIT

Stuart Skinner - 23-17-9 | 0.888 SV% | 2.92 GAA

BUF

Alex Lyon - 20-10-4 | 0.906 SV% | 2.77 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • PIT at home vs BUF: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-05	PIT 1 - 5 BUF	BUF	PIT
2026-02-05	BUF 2 - 5 PIT	PIT	PIT
2025-11-26	PIT 4 - 2 BUF	PIT	PIT
2025-03-27	BUF 7 - 3 PIT	BUF	PIT
2025-01-17	BUF 2 - 5 PIT	PIT	BUF

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 64.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 1 - 5 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.1 - 2.9