Florida Panthers at Columbus Blue Jackets NHL Predictions

2026-03-05 • Nationwide Arena

Columbus Blue Jackets 4 - 2 Florida Panthers

🚨 Upset Win (54% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CBJ: 46.1%

FLA: 53.9%

Expected Goals

CBJ: 3.06

FLA: 3.10

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CBJ

Jet Greaves - 11-10-5 | 0.909 SV% | 2.62 GAA

FLA

Daniil Tarasov - 4-6-2 | 0.899 SV% | 2.96 GAA

Stat	CBJ	FLA
Season SV%	0.909	0.899
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.62	2.96

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CBJ	Jet Greaves	28	26	2	92.9%	3.44	1	1.44
FLA	Daniil Tarasov	28	24	4	85.7%	3.59	2	-0.41

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 80% • CBJ at home vs FLA: 2-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-12	FLA 2 - 1 CBJ	FLA	FLA
2026-03-05	CBJ 4 - 2 FLA	CBJ	FLA
2025-12-06	FLA 7 - 6 CBJ	FLA	FLA
2025-03-20	CBJ 0 - 1 FLA	FLA	FLA
2025-03-06	FLA 3 - 0 CBJ	FLA	FLA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CBJ	14	0	0.66
1	FLA	14	0	0.83
2	CBJ	14	1	1.15
2	FLA	19	0	0.89
3	CBJ	12	1	1.77
3	FLA	22	1	1.71

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown