Tampa Bay Lightning at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions
2026-03-05 • Canada Life Centre
Winnipeg Jets 4 - 1 Tampa Bay Lightning
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
WPG: 51.7%
TBL: 48.3%
Expected Goals
WPG: 2.98
TBL: 3.19
Total Goals
Median: 6.1
Over 5.5: 60%
Over 6.5: 44%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
WPG
Connor Hellebuyck - 23-23-11 | 0.895 SV% | 2.86 GAA
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 39-15-4 | 0.911 SV% | 2.31 GAA
| Stat | WPG | TBL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.907 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.867 | 0.919 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.937 | 0.925 |
| GAA | 2.51 | 2.33 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 100% • WPG at home vs TBL: 3-0
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-05 | WPG 4 - 1 TBL | WPG | WPG |
| 2026-01-29 | TBL 4 - 1 WPG | TBL | TBL |
| 2024-11-14 | TBL 4 - 1 WPG | TBL | TBL |
| 2024-11-03 | WPG 7 - 4 TBL | WPG | WPG |
| 2024-01-02 | WPG 4 - 2 TBL | WPG | WPG |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 51.7%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.2
Score Breakdown
Winnipeg Jets 4 - 1 Tampa Bay Lightning
Expected: 3.0 - 3.2
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