Tampa Bay Lightning at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions

2026-03-05 • Canada Life Centre

Winnipeg Jets 4 - 1 Tampa Bay Lightning

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

WPG: 50.7%

TBL: 49.3%

Expected Goals

WPG: 3.05

TBL: 3.22

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 41%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Stat	WPG	TBL
Season SV%	0.907	0.913
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.51	2.33

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	27	26	1	96.3%	2.80	1	1.80
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	30	26	4	86.7%	4.01	4	0.01

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 100% • WPG at home vs TBL: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-05	WPG 4 - 1 TBL	WPG	WPG
2026-01-29	TBL 4 - 1 WPG	TBL	TBL
2024-11-14	TBL 4 - 1 WPG	TBL	TBL
2024-11-03	WPG 7 - 4 TBL	WPG	WPG
2024-01-02	WPG 4 - 2 TBL	WPG	WPG

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WPG	14	1	0.84
1	TBL	11	0	0.65
2	WPG	16	2	1.36
2	TBL	11	0	0.61
3	WPG	14	1	1.81
3	TBL	21	1	1.54

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown