Tampa Bay Lightning at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions

2026-03-05 • Canada Life Centre

Winnipeg Jets 4 - 1 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

WPG: 54.6%

TBL: 45.4%

Expected Goals

WPG: 2.91

TBL: 3.30

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 44%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • WPG at home vs TBL: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-05	WPG 4 - 1 TBL	WPG	WPG
2026-01-29	TBL 4 - 1 WPG	TBL	TBL
2024-11-14	TBL 4 - 1 WPG	TBL	TBL
2024-11-03	WPG 7 - 4 TBL	WPG	WPG
2024-01-02	WPG 4 - 2 TBL	WPG	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WPG	14	1	0.84
1	TBL	11	0	0.65
2	WPG	16	2	1.36
2	TBL	11	0	0.61
3	WPG	14	1	1.81
3	TBL	21	1	1.54

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Winnipeg Jets 4 - 1 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 2.9 - 3.3