Ottawa Senators at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2026-03-05 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 1 - 4 Ottawa Senators

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CGY: 42.2%

OTT: 57.8%

Expected Goals

CGY: 2.83

OTT: 3.36

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 43%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CGY

Devin Cooley - 4-4-2 | 0.914 SV% | 2.40 GAA

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

Stat	CGY	OTT
Season SV%	0.914	0.881
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.40	2.95

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	Devin Cooley	37	33	4	89.2%	4.68	3	0.68
OTT	Linus Ullmark	20	19	1	95.0%	1.52	1	0.52

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 100% • CGY at home vs OTT: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-05	CGY 1 - 4 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-10-30	OTT 4 - 3 CGY	OTT	OTT
2024-12-19	CGY 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	OTT
2024-11-25	OTT 4 - 3 CGY	OTT	OTT
2024-01-09	CGY 6 - 3 OTT	CGY	CGY

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	13	0	0.51
1	OTT	11	0	0.61
2	CGY	11	0	0.44
2	OTT	23	0	1.44
3	CGY	7	1	0.57
3	OTT	22	3	2.62

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown