Ottawa Senators at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2026-03-05 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 1 - 4 Ottawa Senators

Win Probability

CGY: 33.3%

OTT: 66.7%

Expected Goals

CGY: 2.59

OTT: 3.60

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 44%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 100% • CGY at home vs OTT: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-05	CGY 1 - 4 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-10-30	OTT 4 - 3 CGY	OTT	OTT
2024-12-19	CGY 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	OTT
2024-11-25	OTT 4 - 3 CGY	OTT	OTT
2024-01-09	CGY 6 - 3 OTT	CGY	CGY

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	13	0	0.51
1	OTT	11	0	0.61
2	CGY	11	0	0.44
2	OTT	23	0	1.44
3	CGY	7	1	0.57
3	OTT	22	3	2.62

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 66.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 1 - 4 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 2.6 - 3.6