New York Islanders at Los Angeles Kings NHL Predictions

2026-03-05 • Crypto.com Arena

Los Angeles Kings 5 - 3 New York Islanders

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

LAK: 69.8%

NYI: 30.2%

Expected Goals

LAK: 3.13

NYI: 2.72

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 42%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

LAK

Darcy Kuemper - 10-7-6 | 0.913 SV% | 2.27 GAA

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

Stat	LAK	NYI
Season SV%	0.913	0.910
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.27	2.55

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
LAK	Darcy Kuemper	35	32	3	91.4%	3.79	1	0.79
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	35	30	5	85.7%	5.40	6	0.40

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • LAK at home vs NYI: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-13	NYI 2 - 3 LAK	LAK	LAK
2026-03-05	LAK 5 - 3 NYI	LAK	LAK
2025-03-11	LAK 4 - 1 NYI	LAK	LAK
2024-12-10	NYI 1 - 3 LAK	LAK	LAK
2024-03-11	LAK 3 - 0 NYI	LAK	LAK

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	LAK	30	0	1.49
1	NYI	6	0	0.16
2	LAK	12	0	0.78
2	NYI	31	1	2.07
3	LAK	15	6	3.13
3	NYI	18	0	1.56

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 69.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown