Florida Panthers at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2026-03-06 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 1 - 3 Florida Panthers

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

DET: 55.8%

FLA: 44.2%

Expected Goals

DET: 3.21

FLA: 2.97

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 43%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

DET

John Gibson - 13-8-1 | 0.893 SV% | 2.97 GAA

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Stat	DET	FLA
Season SV%	0.893	0.888
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.97	2.80

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	John Gibson	23	20	3	87.0%	2.95	1	-0.05
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	29	28	1	96.6%	4.75	5	3.75

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • DET at home vs FLA: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-15	FLA 8 - 1 DET	FLA	FLA
2026-03-10	FLA 4 - 3 DET	FLA	FLA
2026-03-06	DET 1 - 3 FLA	FLA	DET
2025-10-15	DET 4 - 1 FLA	DET	DET
2025-04-10	FLA 4 - 1 DET	FLA	FLA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	12	2	1.00
1	FLA	11	0	0.80
2	DET	20	1	1.98
2	FLA	5	0	0.27
3	DET	19	2	1.77
3	FLA	19	1	1.89

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown