Colorado Avalanche at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2026-03-06 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 4 - 5 Colorado Avalanche (SO)

Win Probability

DAL: 43.3%

COL: 56.7%

Expected Goals

DAL: 2.70

COL: 3.30

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 68%

Over 6.5: 50%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 54% • DAL at home vs COL: 5-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	DAL 0 - 2 COL	COL	COL
2026-03-18	COL 1 - 2 DAL	DAL	COL
2026-03-06	DAL 4 - 5 COL	COL	COL
2025-10-11	COL 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-05-03	DAL 4 - 2 COL	DAL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	16	1	1.28
1	COL	14	2	1.40
2	DAL	9	1	0.97
2	COL	13	0	0.88
3	DAL	9	3	1.56
3	COL	11	0	0.92
4	DAL	3	0	0.31
4	COL	2	0	0.25
5	DAL	2	0	0.10
5	COL	2	2	1.90

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 4 - 5 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 2.7 - 3.3