Colorado Avalanche at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2026-03-06 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 4 - 5 Colorado Avalanche (SO)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

DAL: 40.2%

COL: 59.8%

Expected Goals

DAL: 2.86

COL: 3.34

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

COL

Mackenzie Blackwood - 13-1-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.07 GAA

Stat	DAL	COL
Season SV%	0.907	0.924
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.57	2.07

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	31	25	6	80.6%	5.37	4	-0.63
COL	Mackenzie Blackwood	23	19	4	82.6%	4.22	5	0.22

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • DAL at home vs COL: 5-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	DAL 0 - 2 COL	COL	COL
2026-03-18	COL 1 - 2 DAL	DAL	COL
2026-03-06	DAL 4 - 5 COL	COL	COL
2025-10-11	COL 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	COL
2025-05-03	DAL 4 - 2 COL	DAL	COL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	16	1	1.28
1	COL	14	2	1.40
2	DAL	9	1	0.97
2	COL	13	0	0.88
3	DAL	9	3	1.56
3	COL	11	0	0.92
4	DAL	3	0	0.31
4	COL	2	0	0.25
5	DAL	2	0	0.10
5	COL	2	2	1.90

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 59.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 4 - 5 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 2.9 - 3.3