Montreal Canadiens at Anaheim Ducks NHL Predictions

2026-03-06 • Honda Center

Anaheim Ducks 6 - 5 Montreal Canadiens (SO)

🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

ANA: 49.4%

MTL: 50.6%

Expected Goals

ANA: 2.99

MTL: 2.93

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

ANA

Lukas Dostal - 13-9-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.15 GAA

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

Stat	ANA	MTL
Season SV%	0.888	0.863
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.15	3.52

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
ANA	Lukas Dostal	33	27	6	81.8%	5.40	4	-0.60
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	38	31	7	81.6%	5.50	4	-1.50

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • ANA at home vs MTL: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-15	MTL 3 - 4 ANA	ANA	MTL
2026-03-06	ANA 6 - 5 MTL	ANA	MTL
2025-02-02	ANA 3 - 2 MTL	ANA	MTL
2024-12-09	MTL 3 - 2 ANA	MTL	MTL
2024-02-13	MTL 5 - 0 ANA	MTL	MTL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	ANA	19	1	1.31
1	MTL	12	0	0.77
2	ANA	17	1	1.46
2	MTL	23	2	2.18
3	ANA	9	0	0.65
3	MTL	11	0	0.40
4	ANA	0	0	0.00
4	MTL	6	1	0.79
5	ANA	6	2	2.07
5	MTL	5	1	1.26

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Anaheim Ducks 6 - 5 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.0 - 2.9