Minnesota Wild at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2026-03-06 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 2 - 4 Minnesota Wild

🚨 Upset Loss (61% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

VGK: 61.4%

MIN: 38.6%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.41

MIN: 3.10

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

VGK

Akira Schmid - 11-4-4 | 0.895 SV% | 2.50 GAA

MIN

Filip Gustavsson - 13-8-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.47 GAA

Stat	VGK	MIN
Season SV%	0.895	0.912
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.50	2.47

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Akira Schmid	24	20	4	83.3%	3.55	2	-0.45
MIN	Filip Gustavsson	31	29	2	93.5%	3.20	1	1.20

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • VGK at home vs MIN: 7-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-12	MIN 4 - 2 VGK	MIN	VGK
2026-03-06	VGK 2 - 4 MIN	MIN	VGK
2025-12-29	VGK 2 - 5 MIN	MIN	VGK
2025-11-16	MIN 3 - 2 VGK	MIN	VGK
2025-05-01	MIN 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	11	0	0.55
1	MIN	15	0	0.88
2	VGK	18	1	1.27
2	MIN	11	0	0.68
3	VGK	21	0	1.38
3	MIN	15	2	1.99

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 61.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown