Philadelphia Flyers at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2026-03-07 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 3 - 4 Philadelphia Flyers (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

Win Probability

PIT: 55.3%

PHI: 44.7%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.52

PHI: 3.19

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 48%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • PIT at home vs PHI: 5-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-29	PHI 1 - 0 PIT	PHI	PIT
2026-04-27	PIT 3 - 2 PHI	PIT	PHI
2026-04-25	PHI 2 - 4 PIT	PIT	PHI
2026-04-22	PHI 5 - 2 PIT	PHI	PHI
2026-04-20	PIT 0 - 3 PHI	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	12	0	0.76
1	PHI	8	0	0.44
2	PIT	12	0	0.75
2	PHI	16	0	1.13
3	PIT	15	0	1.06
3	PHI	7	0	0.24
4	PIT	7	0	0.46
4	PHI	2	1	0.23
5	PIT	3	0	0.21
5	PHI	2	1	0.99

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 3 - 4 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.5 - 3.2